# Arenil.com: Uncover the Untold Predicting trends in finance, economics, or dynamic systems is challenging—but what if you could refine your forecasting skills while contributing to collective insights? At Arenil.com, we empower analysts, researchers, and curious minds to share predictions, analyze outcomes, and benchmark their accuracy against peers and advanced models. ## What is a Project? A project on Arenil.com revolves around tracking and forecasting a key metric—such as stock prices, GDP growth, or commodity trends. Beyond simple forecasting, each project is structured as a survey governed by specific rules set by the project creator (which could be you, a business, or a researcher). These rules determine critical aspects such as: - **Participant Eligibility:** Who can contribute (e.g., experts vs. the general public). - **Prediction Horizon:** How far ahead forecasts should extend. - **Access to Forecasts:** Whether participants can view model outputs upfront or only after submitting their own predictions. - and etc. Our platform is designed to be *secure, intuitive, and transparent*, ensuring a user-friendly experience while rigorously protecting your privacy. For more details, please review our [Privacy Policy](/documentMD?id=privacy). ## Why Participate? Participating in an Arenil.com project allows you to *sharpen your forecasting skills, test your predictions against real-world data, and gain recognition* for your accuracy. Here’s how: - **Real-Time Feedback:** When new actual data is released, you can instantly see how your forecasts compare to: - Advanced statistical models (e.g., machine learning forecasts). - Predictions from other participants. - Historical benchmarks. - **Scientific Validation:** We guarantee the *scientific validity* of our methods for combining predictions and calculating scores. - **Earn Comprehensive Scores:** Your performance is measured using three key metrics: - **Directional Score:** The percentage of correct "up/down" trend predictions. - **Percentage Error:** The deviation of your point predictions from actual values. - **Distributional Score:** The accuracy of your probabilistic forecasts. Your results are tracked in your *prediction profile*, allowing you to build a portfolio of achievements, share progress with peers, and even climb the leaderboards. > *Note:* Scores are updated only when projects receive new data, so always review project rules before participating. ## How to Participate Getting involved is easy and flexible. You can share your insights in one of three ways: - **Choose Your Method:** (Details) - **Directional Forecast:** Indicate whether you expect the variable to go up or down. - **Point Prediction:** Provide a specific numerical forecast (e.g., *"BTC will hit $60K by Q4"*). - **Probabilistic Forecast:** Submit a forecast that expresses your expectation with a degree of uncertainty (e.g., *"70% chance unemployment falls below 4%"*). - **Instant Submission:** Share your prediction in seconds and see how it stacks up against evolving data. - **Interactive Feedback:** Monitor real-time updates and refine your approach based on detailed performance metrics. Your individual predictions remain **private** unless you choose to share them. However, aggregate data (e.g., crowd averages) may be available for project insights. Learn more about our data practices in our [Privacy Policy](/documentMD?id=privacy). ## How to Create a Project Launching your own project is *simple and rewarding*. Whether you’re a business, researcher, or enthusiastic forecaster, our tools empower you to *crowdsource insights, benchmark models, and spark engaging debates*. Here’s how to get started: - **Select a Variable:** Focus on time-series data—such as economic indicators or financial metrics. - **Set Survey Rules:** Define participant eligibility, choose the prediction horizon, and decide whether to display model forecasts. - **Manage Sessions:** Initiate new forecasting sessions whenever new data becomes available to ensure continuous feedback and updated scoring. We will calculate the scores for survey participants and report a set of aggregate indices. For each project, you also have the option to report predictions using statistical models. We offer a range of tools to simplify these calculations. You can find more information on the [Create a Project](/new) page.