# Arenil.com: Uncover the Untold Predicting trends in finance, economics, or other dynamic systems is no easy task. But imagine if you could sharpen your forecasting skills while also contributing to a shared pool of collective insights. At Arenil.com, we enable analysts, researchers, and curious minds to exchange predictions, explore results, and measure their accuracy against peers and cutting-edge models. ## What is a Project? A project on Arenil.com revolves around tracking and forecasting a key metric—such as stock prices, GDP growth, or commodity trends. Beyond simple forecasting, each project is structured as a survey governed by specific rules set by the project creator (which could be you, a business, or a researcher). These rules determine critical aspects such as: - **Participant Eligibility:** Who can contribute (e.g., experts vs. the general public). - **Prediction Horizon:** How far ahead forecasts should extend. - **Access to Forecasts:** Whether participants can view model outputs upfront or only after submitting their own predictions. - and etc. Our platform is designed to be *secure, intuitive, and transparent*, ensuring a user-friendly experience while rigorously protecting your privacy. For more details, please review our [Privacy Policy](/documentMD?id=privacy). ## Why Participate? Participating in an Arenil.com project allows you to *sharpen your forecasting skills, test your predictions against real-world data, and gain recognition* for your accuracy. Here’s how: - **Real-Time Feedback:** When new actual data is released, you can instantly see how your forecasts compare to: - Advanced statistical models (e.g., machine learning forecasts). - Predictions from other participants. - Historical benchmarks. - **Scientific Validation:** We guarantee the *scientific validity* of our methods for combining predictions and calculating scores. - **Earn Comprehensive Scores:** Your performance is measured using three key metrics: - **Directional Score:** The percentage of correct "up/down" trend predictions. - **Percentage Error:** The deviation of your point predictions from actual values. - **Distributional Score:** The accuracy of your probabilistic forecasts. Your results are tracked in your *prediction profile*, allowing you to build a portfolio of achievements, share progress with peers, and even climb the leaderboards. > *Note:* Scores are updated only when projects receive new data, so always review project rules before participating. ## How to Participate Getting involved is easy and flexible. You can share your insights in one of three ways: - **Choose Your Method:** (Details) - **Directional Forecast:** Indicate whether you expect the variable to go up or down. - **Point Prediction:** Provide a specific numerical forecast (e.g., *"BTC will hit $60K by Q4"*). - **Probabilistic Forecast:** Submit a forecast that expresses your expectation with a degree of uncertainty (e.g., *"70% chance unemployment falls below 4%"*). - **Instant Submission:** Share your prediction in seconds and see how it stacks up against evolving data. - **Interactive Feedback:** Monitor real-time updates and refine your approach based on detailed performance metrics. Your individual predictions remain **private** unless you choose to share them. However, aggregate data (e.g., crowd averages) may be available for project insights. Learn more about our data practices in our [Privacy Policy](/documentMD?id=privacy). ## How to Create a Project Launching your own project is *simple and rewarding*. Whether you’re a business, researcher, or enthusiastic forecaster, our tools empower you to *crowdsource insights, benchmark models, and spark engaging debates*. Here’s how to get started: - **Select a Variable:** Focus on time-series data—such as economic indicators or financial metrics. - **Set Survey Rules:** Define participant eligibility, choose the prediction horizon, and decide whether to display model forecasts. - **Manage Sessions:** Initiate new forecasting sessions whenever new data becomes available to ensure continuous feedback and updated scoring. We will calculate the scores for survey participants and report a set of aggregate indices. For each project, you also have the option to report predictions using statistical models. We offer a range of tools to simplify these calculations. You can find more information on the [Create a Project](/new) page.